Corinthians host Remo in Round 19 of Serie A with the Timão carrying Libertadores fatigue but still the clear class edge at home. Remo arrive with five players on the injury list, a squad thin enough to make any road trip to São Paulo a steep ask.
Corinthians have won 2 of their last 5 across all competitions and scored in 4 of those 5 games. Remo, despite a decent recent run of 3 wins in 5, conceded in 4 of their last 5 and have only 1 clean sheet in that stretch. The model puts Corinthians at 52% to win and 79% for the home side not to lose. Under 2.5 goals lands at 61% probability, and the h2h shows both meetings ended with no BTTS across 2 games.
The pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.83-1.85. A short-handed Remo side, Corinthians managing their legs mid-week, and a head-to-head that has produced zero BTTS in 2 meetings all point to a tight, controlled affair. Back the low-scoring game.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 27.04.23 | Copa do Brasil | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.04.23 | Copa do Brasil | 2–0 | U2.5 |
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