Corinthians host Estudiantes in the Libertadores quarter-final second leg after a 1-1 draw in La Plata. Form tells contrasting stories: Corinthians have lost four of their last five across all competitions, while Estudiantes arrive with two wins and two draws in five. Five injuries in the Corinthians squad add pressure, but the home side has scored in four of their last five and the crowd factor in Sao Paulo is real.
The model's two key inputs: an 82% home-win probability and a 91% chance that Corinthians at least avoid defeat. Both teams have scored in three of Estudiantes' last five, and in four of Corinthians' last five. Head-to-head across two meetings, Corinthians have won once and drawn once, conceding just one goal total.
DNB HOME at 1.29 (Marathon) is the play. You collect if Corinthians win; the tie goes to extra time if they draw, giving Estudiantes a lifeline, but the model says that scenario has only a 9% chance. Confidence is moderate given Corinthians' poor domestic run.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 10.09.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 23.08.23 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1–0 | U2.5 |
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