The Timao faithful are restless: three defeats in five across all competitions, five goals conceded, and a home loss to Santos last time out. But Chapecoense arrive in worse shape, shipping ten goals in their last five outings and winning just once in that run. Both squads are battered by injuries, yet the visitors' defensive record is the more alarming one.
Corinthians scored in 3 of their last 5 games and conceded in 3 of 5. Chapecoense conceded in 4 of their last 5, leaking goals at a rate that will worry any coach. The only head-to-head on record ended 0-0 earlier this season, but that was away from home for Corinthians. The model puts Corinthians at 65% to win, while the Draw No Bet home price sits at 1.12. That is too short. The AWAY side at 8.00 is the bigger swing worth taking.
Chapecoense's travel record is grim: 3 losses, 10 goals against in 5 trips. A desperate Corinthians crowd pushes this team. Back Chapecoense DNB at 8.00 as a live dart - but for the main play, take Corinthians DNB at 1.12, absorbing the draw risk for a cleaner return.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 20.03.26 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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