The Estadio Leon is not a place Juarez wants to visit right now. Los Panzas Verdes are unbeaten in their last two Liga MX outings, while Juarez arrive on the back of four defeats in five, conceding ten goals in that run. Two key Juarez absentees - Lucas Romero and Ettson Ayon - further thin a squad already short on confidence, and Leon also miss Angel Estrada and Luis Valadez but retain enough quality to control this tie.
The numbers back Leon hard. Juarez have conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches and managed just 4 goals in that same stretch. The model gives Leon an 83% chance of winning, and the h2h shows Leon put three past Juarez at home in April 2026. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Juarez's last 5 games, suggesting an open affair once Leon take control.
DNB Home at 1.23 is the anchor. It is a short price, but the risk profile here - a side with 83% win probability against a team that has lost four of five - justifies the safety net. For those wanting more, the Over 2.5 at 1.62 (bet365) is the value add given Juarez's leaky record on the road.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 19.04.26 | Liga MX | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 27.09.25 | Liga MX | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 26.01.25 | Liga MX | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 20.10.24 | Liga MX | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 28.04.24 | Liga MX | 1–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service