Cienciano arrive at this second leg in wretched form, losing four of their last five across all competitions and conceding 11 goals in that run. They have kept zero clean sheets in those five matches. Lanus, meanwhile, won three of their last five, kept three clean sheets in five outings, and already beat Cienciano 2-0 in the first leg seven days ago - a result that effectively decides the tie barring a historic collapse.
The numbers back Lanus firmly. They conceded in only 2 of 5 recent matches and allowed BTTS in just 1 of 5. Cienciano scored in only 3 of 5, and with Ademar Robles injured, their attack looks thinner still. Under 2.5 sits at 1.67-1.73, reflecting a cautious game likely from both sides. DNB for Lanus is priced at 2.30-2.42, a fair return for a side needing only to avoid defeat to advance.
Model verdict: Lanus DNB at 2.30. The Argentine side hold every structural advantage - form, first-leg result, defensive solidity - and Cienciano have no margin for error. The price more than compensates for the road context.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.07.26 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2–0 | U2.5 |
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