Chicago Fire arrive on the back of two straight Leagues Cup and MLS wins, scoring nine goals in their last five matches. Santos Laguna are in freefall: five losses from five, zero wins, conceded ten times. The model puts Chicago's win probability at 94%, with a draw-or-better probability of 100%.
The two key inputs: Santos have scored in just 1 of their last 5 games, while Chicago have scored in all 5. Defensively, Santos have conceded in all 5 recent matches. The model also flags BTTS at 0% probability, reflecting Santos's near-total attacking absence. Chicago DNB is priced at 1.38 (10Bet), which the model reads as underpriced given the 94% win estimate.
Verdict: Chicago Fire DNB at 1.38. The data leaves little room for doubt. Santos have nothing going forward and everything to lose at the back.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service