Chelsea arrive in good nick, winning four of their last five across all competitions, but four players are sidelined including Caicedo. Brighton are the sharper story: four wins from five, scoring 12 goals and conceding none across that run. That defensive solidity is the number that matters here.
Brighton have kept five clean sheets in five recent matches, conceding zero goals in that stretch. In the h2h, Chelsea have failed to score in two of the last five meetings. Brighton's attack has been clinical; their defence has been a wall.
BTTS No at 2.25 (bet365) is the play. Brighton's backline looks locked, and Chelsea's injury list thins their creative options. The price is fair for a side that has not conceded once in five outings.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.04.26 | Premier League | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 27.09.25 | Premier League | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 14.02.25 | Premier League | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 08.02.25 | FA Cup | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 28.09.24 | Premier League | 4–2 | O2.5 |
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