Chelsea arrive at round 6 with a leaky defence that has conceded in all 5 of their last matches and zero clean sheets across that run. Bournemouth are no strangers to open football either, having scored in 4 of their last 5 outings while conceding in 4 of the same. Six players are missing for the hosts, including Caicedo in midfield, which only adds defensive fragility.
The numbers reinforce the case. Chelsea have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5 games. In the head-to-head, BTTS has landed in 3 of the last 5 meetings. The model puts the probability of both sides scoring at 77%. Over 2.5 goals has cleared in 5 of Chelsea's last 5 matches.
BTTS YES at 1.50 (bet365) is the main play. The defensive absences, Chelsea's inability to keep a clean sheet, and Bournemouth's consistent scoring form make this the clearest angle on the card.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 30.12.25 | Premier League | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 06.12.25 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.01.25 | Premier League | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 14.09.24 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 19.05.24 | Premier League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service