Chapecoense head into this Serie A Round 21 fixture carrying serious wounds: five players on the injury list and a home record that has fallen apart. Vasco arrive in better shape, balancing league and Sudamericana duties with a squad that at least keeps the scoreboard moving.
Chapecoense have kept zero clean sheets across their last five matches, conceding in all five. They have managed just 4 goals while leaking 12. Vasco, meanwhile, have scored in 3 of their last 5 outings and conceded in 4. The model gives Vasco a 42% win probability against 33% for the hosts, and the away DNB sits at 1.55 with bet365.
The injury list at Chapecoense is too long to ignore, and their defensive numbers are alarming. Vasco at DNB 1.55 is the play - not flashy, but the data points one way. For the bold, Vasco straight at 2.15-2.34 is the alt.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 06.02.26 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 31.07.22 | Serie B | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 23.04.22 | Serie B | 0–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service