Chapecoense arrive at round 24 without a single win in their last five across all competitions, leaking nine goals and carrying a six-man injury list that guts their squad depth. Sao Paulo, meanwhile, have not lost in three Serie A outings and scored in every one of their last four games, showing they travel with confidence even against big sides like Flamengo.
The numbers back the visitors hard. Chape have zero wins from five recent matches, while Sao Paulo hold a Draw No Bet price of 1.45 that already tells the story. The only head-to-head on record ended 2-0 to Sao Paulo, with Chape failing to score. The model puts the away win at 52 percent, well ahead of the 24 percent assigned to the hosts.
Sao Paulo at 2.05 is the play. It is not a short price, given how the market reads this, and the injury crisis in Chape's squad only widens the gap. Back the Tricolor to collect three points.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.03.26 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
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