Chapecoense host Bahia carrying serious damage - zero wins in their last five, ten goals conceded, and four players out injured. Bahia arrive in the opposite mood: unbeaten in five, four clean sheets in their last five, and a 2-0 win against this same Chapecoense side just four weeks ago.
The numbers back the visitors hard. Chapecoense scored in only 2 of their last 5 matches and conceded in 4 of 5. Bahia, meanwhile, kept 3 clean sheets in 5 outings and conceded in just 2 of 5. The model gives Bahia a 57% win probability, and the DNB price of 1.52-1.53 reflects that confidence without the draw risk.
Give me the Bahia away win at 2.05. The hosts are winless, leaky and short-handed. Bahia are compact, disciplined and have already beaten this opponent recently. At evens-plus, that is a price worth taking.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 18.07.26 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 01.10.22 | Serie B | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 15.06.22 | Serie B | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service