The Canadian derby lands in Montreal with the Reds arriving battered - six players on the injury list and four straight losses in their last five outings. CF Montreal are no world-beaters at home either, but they have the bodies and the motivation to make this count in front of their own crowd.
Toronto have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 matches and kept zero clean sheets in that run, leaking 13 goals while scoring only 6. Montreal scored in 4 of their last 5 and went over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 recent games. The model puts the home side at 50% to win and BTTS at 71% - both teams are likely to find the net, but Montreal hold the structural edge.
I'm backing Montreal on the Draw No Bet at 1.45 (bet365). The price accepts the draw risk for free and gives us clean cover on a side facing a depleted, winless visitor. Bold enough, honest enough.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 31.08.25 | MLS | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 17.05.25 | MLS | 1–6 | O2.5 |
| 21.07.24 | MLS | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 19.05.24 | MLS | 5–1 | O2.5 |
| 21.08.23 | MLS | 2–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service