Celtic host Rangers in Round 7 of the Premiership carrying mixed form. Three wins from five across all competitions, but back-to-back defeats - including a 0-3 League Cup loss to this same Rangers side just seven days ago - leave the home camp fragile. Rangers, by contrast, arrive on a perfect five-from-five run, conceding only once across those games. The model puts Celtic's win probability at 53 percent, yet the market prices them at 2.20, implying roughly 45 percent. That gap is moderate, but the directional signal is clear.
The key numbers sit in the head-to-head and Rangers' recent defensive record. Over the last five meetings Celtic have won just once, drawn twice and lost twice, conceding 9 goals in the process. Rangers have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 outings, conceding in only 1 of those. The model assigns a 78 percent probability to under 2.5 goals and 75 percent to no BTTS - a low-scoring, tight affair is the most likely template.
The main play is Celtic DNB at 1.62 (bet365). If Celtic win, you collect; a draw refunds. Given Rangers' water-tight defence, Celtic cannot afford to be caught on the counter as they were in the League Cup. The price is modest but the risk is reduced. Alt: BTTS No at 2.62.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.09.26 | League Cup | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 10.05.26 | Premiership | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 01.03.26 | Premiership | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 03.01.26 | Premiership | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 31.08.25 | Premiership | 0–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service