Balaidos smells like a trap this Sunday. Celta arrive distracted by Europa League duties, having lost to Juventus midweek, while Alaves travel as a side that has lost three of their last five but keeps finding ways to stay in games. Neither squad inspires confidence right now, and the market knows it.
The numbers back caution hard. Celta have scored in only 3 of their last 5 matches and kept 2 clean sheets. Alaves conceded in 4 of 5 recent outings yet scored in 3. Head-to-head across 5 meetings: 2 wins each and 1 draw, with Alaves actually winning the last home-and-away cycle here. The model puts the draw probability at 38%, the highest of the three outcomes, while the market offers 3.4.
At 3.4, the draw is the value call. Celta are short at 2.1-2.2 for a side with one win in five and a threadbare defence missing four players. Alaves at 3.4-3.56 are not without threat. Give me the stalemate and the bigger price.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 22.03.26 | La Liga | 3–4 | O2.5 |
| 22.11.25 | La Liga | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 27.01.25 | La Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 16.08.24 | La Liga | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 27.04.24 | La Liga | 3–0 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service