Bury arrive in decent nick, winning 4 of their last 5, but their competition level tells a different story. Their recent Cup wins came against Bromsgrove and Workington. Harrogate, operating a tier higher in the National League, have also won 4 of 5 and look considerably more battle-tested at this stage.
The numbers that matter: Harrogate kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5, conceding in only 2 of those games. Bury conceded in 4 of their last 5. Harrogate scored in all 5 of their last outings. The gap in defensive discipline is the clearest edge here, and the market at 1.83-2.04 for Harrogate looks generous given the context.
Harrogate away at 1.90 (Betfair) is the pick. They defend better, play at a higher level and have scored in every recent outing. One level up in class is enough at this price.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service