Burnley arrive into round 11 with one win from their last five, collecting three draws and a loss. Their home record in that sample shows they have conceded in 4 of 5 matches and kept just one clean sheet. Wolves are struggling for consistency too, losing three of their last five, but they carry a significant injury list that matches Burnley's own absentees, so neither side has a structural advantage there. The market respects Wolves more, pricing them as favourites at 2.25.
The numbers point clearly toward goals. Burnley scored in all 5 of their last five matches and conceded in 4. BTTS landed in 4 of those 5. The model puts both-teams-to-score probability at 72 percent and over 2.5 at 74 percent. The head-to-head across five meetings shows Burnley kept zero clean sheets against Wolves, and BTTS triggered in 3 of those 5.
The main call is Wolves on the draw no bet at 1.70 (bet365). At 45 percent model probability versus an implied 44 percent from the price, there is marginal value, and Burnley's leaky defence backs it. The alt is BTTS Yes at 1.65-1.67, which the form data strongly supports.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 24.05.26 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 26.10.25 | Premier League | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 28.08.24 | League Cup | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.04.24 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 05.12.23 | Premier League | 1–0 | U2.5 |
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