Burnley enter this Championship round-4 fixture without a single win across their last five outings, shipping 12 goals in the process. The Clarets have conceded in all five of those matches and kept zero clean sheets. Middlesbrough, by contrast, have won four of their last five, scoring 10 and conceding only 5. Jaydon Banel and Ashley Barnes are absent for the hosts, while Tommy Conway misses out for the visitors.
The model puts Boro's win probability at 80 percent. In four head-to-head meetings Burnley have not lost, but that record belongs to a different era of form. Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 games respectively, and 4 of those last 5 fixtures for each side have gone over 2.5 goals. The away Draw No Bet at 1.80-1.82 reflects Boro's superiority without the draw risk.
Middlesbrough Draw No Bet at 1.80 is the call. If Burnley's defensive collapse continues and Boro's attack clicks, Over 2.5 at 1.77-1.80 also merits a stake.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 29.12.24 | Championship | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 06.12.24 | Championship | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 07.04.23 | Championship | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 17.12.22 | Championship | 3–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service