Brighton arrive here on the back of five consecutive wins across all competitions, conceding just twice in that run. Crystal Palace have lost two of their last five and carry four absentees including goalkeeper Henderson and striker Mateta. The head-to-head record is tight - Brighton have not scored in either of the last two meetings - but the gulf in current form is hard to ignore.
Brighton kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches and conceded in only 1 of those. Palace conceded in 3 of their last 5. Brighton's DNB price of 1.21 (bet365) reflects genuine favouritism. The model places home-win probability at 93 per cent, making the raw 1X2 price of 1.50 look thin but DNB at 1.21 still offers cleaner value with the h2h caution factored in.
Back Brighton DNB at 1.21. The injury list weakens Palace going forward, and Brighton's defensive record over five games is exceptional. If you want more edge, the Asian handicap Brighton -1 at 1.87 is the alternative worth considering.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.02.26 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 09.11.25 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 05.04.25 | Premier League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 15.12.24 | Premier League | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 03.02.24 | Premier League | 4–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service