Brighton host Arsenal in Premier League round 5 carrying a significant injury burden: Svoboda, Azeez, Hinshelwood, Wieffer, Minteh and Mitoma are all out. Their form is mixed - a heavy defeat at Chelsea and a home draw with Leeds sit alongside the positives. Arsenal arrive in a different shape entirely: five wins from five across all competitions, three clean sheets in that run, and goals conceded in only 2 of those 5 matches.
The head-to-head record is stark. Brighton have lost all three recent meetings with Arsenal, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 5. Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 3 games. The model puts Arsenal's win probability at 64 percent, with a DNB price of around 1.26-1.27 available. That implies roughly 79 percent probability; the model's away-win-or-draw figure sits at 87 percent, suggesting the DNB price still carries value.
Arsenal DNB at 1.27 is the call. Saliba and White are injured, which introduces some defensive uncertainty, but Arsenal's overall structure and form make them clear favourites here. Back the away side to avoid defeat.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 04.03.26 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 27.12.25 | Premier League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 29.10.25 | League Cup | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 04.01.25 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 31.08.24 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service