Brentford arrive at round 3 having won four of their last five across all competitions, conceding just four goals in that span. Their home form is particularly sharp: a 3-0 dismantling of Tottenham in their last Premier League home outing sets the tone. Sunderland, a newly promoted side, lost at Ipswich on matchday 2 and have kept only two clean sheets in five recent outings.
The model puts Brentford's win probability at 70 per cent, with the draw at 24. Sunderland have conceded in just 2 of their last 5 games, but Brentford have scored in all 5 of theirs. The visitors have managed over 2.5 goals in only 2 of 5 recent matches, pointing to a contained, low-scoring affair that still favours the hosts.
Draw No Bet on Brentford at 1.24 (bet365) removes the draw risk while the model prices that outcome at just 24 per cent. The price is tight, but the underlying edge is real. Confidence: 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.01.26 | Premier League | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 30.08.25 | Premier League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service