Brentford arrive unbeaten in their last five across all competitions (2W 3D) and have scored in every one of those games. Liverpool, meanwhile, head to the Gtech Community Stadium missing four attacking players - Szoboszlai, Ekitike, Gakpo and Isak - after a 0-3 home defeat to Manchester City last time out in the Premier League. The hosts carry genuine momentum; the visitors carry a depleted squad.
The head-to-head record over five meetings gives Brentford 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, but Liverpool have conceded in all five of those fixtures from Brentford's perspective. Brentford's recent form shows 4 BTTS in 5 games and 4 over-2.5 matches. Liverpool have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 5. The model places home-win probability at 62%, well above the implied probability in the 1X2 price.
At Marathon, Brentford Draw No Bet is available at 1.80. With the model at 62% for a home win and Liverpool's attack badly disrupted, that price represents clear value. Main tip: Brentford DNB at 1.80.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 24.05.26 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 25.10.25 | Premier League | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 18.01.25 | Premier League | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 25.08.24 | Premier League | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 17.02.24 | Premier League | 1–4 | O2.5 |
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