Bournemouth arrive at this Premier League round-5 fixture unbeaten in five, but three of those results are draws and their defence has conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches. Liverpool, by contrast, carry three wins from five, kept two clean sheets and have lost nothing across all competitions. Federico Chiesa and Hugo Ekitike are sidelined for the visitors, yet the squad depth is not a concern at these odds.
The numbers point clearly toward Liverpool. Bournemouth have scored in all 5 recent matches, so a goalless night looks unlikely, but their defensive record gives Liverpool a reliable entry point. The model puts Liverpool at 53% to win outright, and the DNB price of 1.60 (bet365/Marathon ah0_2) removes the draw risk entirely. Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% probability and 1.46-1.50 in the market, a secondary consideration.
Back Liverpool DNB at 1.60. Three wins, two clean sheets, unbeaten run, and a Bournemouth defence that conceded in 4 of 5 - the price is fair for the risk removed.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 24.01.26 | Premier League | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 15.08.25 | Premier League | 4–2 | O2.5 |
| 01.02.25 | Premier League | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 21.09.24 | Premier League | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 21.01.24 | Premier League | 0–4 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service