Bournemouth arrive at this fixture with one Premier League win in their last five across all competitions, drawing twice and losing twice in the top flight. Brentford, by contrast, are unbeaten in five, with three wins and two draws, and have conceded only 3 goals across that entire run. The model puts Brentford's win probability at 61 percent against Bournemouth's 15. The head-to-head record from Bournemouth's perspective reads zero wins from two: a home goalless draw and a 4-1 away defeat inside the last nine months. Four absentees for the hosts add further pressure on a defence that has conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches. Brentford Draw No Bet at 2.02 (bet365) removes the draw risk cleanly. The model's 85 percent away-win-or-draw probability supports the position. Back Brentford to take at least a point, with DNB protecting the stake if it finishes level.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 03.03.26 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 27.12.25 | Premier League | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 26.08.25 | League Cup | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 15.03.25 | Premier League | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 09.11.24 | Premier League | 3–2 | O2.5 |
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