Estadio Nilton Santos hosts a Rio derby with real stakes - Botafogo arrive here having won just one of their last five, leaking eight goals in the process, including a 0-2 home loss to Mirassol and a 0-3 thrashing at Flamengo. Vasco roll in on the back of three wins from five, scoring nine and conceding only two, with Brenner and Rique Ramon sidelined but the squad still firing.
The numbers back the visitors hard. Vasco kept three clean sheets in their last five outings and conceded in only 2 of those 5 games. Botafogo scored in just 2 of their last 5. Head-to-head across four meetings, Botafogo edge it 2W-1D-1L, but Vasco took the last derby at Vasco's ground 2-1 in April. Model probability puts the away win at 27 percent - the 2.55 price implies roughly 39 percent, a fat edge.
Vasco at 2.55 is the pick. The home side are leaky, the visitors are compact and clinical, and Rio derbies live on momentum - right now it all flows Cruz-Maltino. Back Vasco to win.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 05.04.26 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 08.02.26 | Carioca Série A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 05.11.25 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 28.08.25 | Copa do Brasil | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 28.08.25 | Copa do Brasil | 1–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service