Estadio Nilton Santos, a Rio derby with a grudge attached. Botafogo host Fluminense carrying genuine Serie A ambitions, but the head-to-head record hangs over them like a cloud. Botafogo have won 3 of their last 5 across all comps, including a gutsy 1-0 away at Cruzeiro, yet they have failed to score in all 3 recent meetings with Fluminense, conceding 4 goals and keeping zero clean sheets in that run. Fluminense arrive battered by Vasco in the Copa do Brasil, winless in 5, but their injury list is long and Botafogo's home crowd will push. The numbers tilt toward Flu holding firm: 0 goals scored by Botafogo across 3 H2H fixtures, and Fluminense's defensive shape has frustrated them every time. At 2.1 on DNB Away, the price accepts the risk of a draw killing the bet while rewarding Fluminense's proven superiority in this fixture.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.02.26 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.02.26 | Carioca Série A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 28.09.25 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 27.04.25 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 30.01.25 | Carioca Série A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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