Round 31 in the Brazilian Serie A, and Botafogo welcome a Chapecoense side that arrives at the Estadio Nilton Santos carrying serious baggage. The visitors have lost three of their last five, conceding 12 goals along the way, and five players are listed injured. Botafogo are shaky too - one win in five - but at home they carry enough firepower to punish a defence this porous.
The numbers back the angle. Chapecoense conceded in all 5 of their last 5 matches, shipping 12 goals in that run. Botafogo's model probability for a home win sits at 70%. In three head-to-head meetings, Botafogo have won two, with a 4-1 away demolition of Chapecoense back in April still fresh. Both teams scored in 4 of Chapecoense's last 5 games.
The main play is Botafogo on the Asian Handicap -1, priced at 1.48 with bet365. It asks them to win by two or more, which feels achievable against a defence shipping 12 in five. At nearly 1.5, that price carries real value. For the bigger swing, take BTTS YES at 1.80 - both sides have scored in 4 of their last 5 outings each.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.05.26 | Copa do Brasil | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 21.04.26 | Copa do Brasil | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 18.04.26 | Serie A | 1–4 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service