Bosnia and Herzegovina arrive on the back of a 4-2 win over Romania and a 0-0 draw against Poland in the Nations League, giving them a mixed but attack-minded profile. Sweden come in with back-to-back home wins, 3-1 versus Poland and 2-1 versus Romania, looking sharp in attack. Four Swedish absentees - Zetterstrom, Hien, Holm and Elanga - thin the squad, yet the Swedes have still conceded in all five of their last five matches. No head-to-head data exists between these sides, so form is the only guide.
The numbers are loud. Bosnia scored 8 and conceded 9 across their last 5 games, with 3 over-2.5 matches and BTTS landing 3 times. Sweden produced 7 goals for and 11 against in the same window, with 4 over-2.5 results and BTTS in 4 of 5. The model puts over-2.5 probability at 85% and BTTS at 78%. bet365 prices over 2.5 at 1.73, which sits below the model implied fair value of roughly 1.18, confirming clear edge.
The verdict is straightforward: back Over 2.5 goals at 1.73. Both defences leak, both attacks produce, and the injury list on Sweden's side only adds uncertainty at the back, not at the front. Confidence sits at 4 out of 5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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