Bosnia host Poland in Nations League B Round 4 carrying contrasting but equally leaky recent records. The hosts drew with Sweden and beat Romania 4-2, while Poland crushed Romania 6-0 before losing 1-3 in Sweden. Both sides have been involved in open, unpredictable football. Poland arrive with five injury absences including Grabara, Moder and Kaminski, which limits squad depth but does not suppress their attacking intent. The one direct meeting this cycle ended 0-0, yet that result looks like an outlier given what both squads have shown since.
The model's two headline inputs: Bosnia conceded in 4 of their last 5 games, and Poland scored in 3 of their last 5. Combined form totals read 8 goals for Bosnia and 9 for Poland across five matches each. BTTS has landed in 3 of Bosnia's last 5 and 2 of Poland's last 5, while the model prices both-teams-to-score at 82% and over 2.5 at 88%.
Both Teams To Score at YES is the clear call. The attacking quality is present on both sides and the defensive frailties are documented. At 82% model probability, this is the sharpest angle on the board. Alt: Over 2.5 goals at 88% model probability for those who want the wider net.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 25.09.26 | UEFA Nations League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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