The Dall'Ara is a wounded place right now. Bologna have lost four of their last five across all competitions, scoring just twice in that run, while Torino arrive with four losses from five and a squad hit hard by absences - Israel, Casadei, Adams and Simeone all out. Two clubs searching for their first league win of the season, and the tension that comes with that.
The h2h numbers tell you to slow down. Bologna are unbeaten in five straight meetings with Torino, but two of those ended 0-0, and the model puts under 2.5 goals at 83% probability. Bologna have scored in only 1 of their last 5 matches; Torino have kept zero clean sheets in 5 outings. Both defences leak, but neither attack convinces. The draw has landed twice in the last five h2h, and the model gives it a 37% chance against a market price of 3.50.
With a combined four goals scored across their last five games each, goals feel scarce. The draw at 3.50 (bet365/Marathon) is the play - value at a price that implies only 28%. My alt is BTTS NO at 1.95, aligning with the model's 75% no-BTTS probability.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 15.02.26 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 29.10.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.02.25 | Serie A | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 21.12.24 | Serie A | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 03.05.24 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service