Bolivar arrive at this Sudamericana last-16 tie on the back of four wins from five, including a 4-2 road victory over Aurora and a 1-0 away result against Gremio in this same competition. Sao Paulo, by contrast, have taken just one win from five and lost three, shipping six goals in the process. Three absentees - Toloi, Bobadilla and Moura Lucas - further thin their squad for a trip to altitude.
The numbers are clear. Bolivar have scored in 4 of 5 recent matches and conceded in 4 of 5, while Sao Paulo have scored in 4 of 5 and conceded in 4 of 5. Both sides have seen BTTS land in 3 of their last 5 games. The Draw No Bet on Bolivar sits at 1.36, reflecting the model's view that the home side carries the weight of probability here.
Main tip: Bolivar DNB at 1.36. A draw refunds the stake; only a Sao Paulo win defeats the bet. Given the away side's poor run and injury list, that scenario looks unlikely. Confidence: 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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