Bodo/Glimt arrive at round 16 in imperious domestic form: five wins from five recent outings, 13 goals scored and none conceded. Lillestrom have shown attacking intent with 10 goals in their last five, but their defensive record is soft - four of those five matches saw them concede, and they have just one clean sheet in that run. The class gap here is hard to ignore.
The model puts the home win probability at 70 percent, with only an 11 percent chance of a Lillestrom victory. In both head-to-head meetings this season Bodo/Glimt kept a clean sheet, winning 2-0 and 4-0. Bodo/Glimt conceded in 0 of their last 5 matches. The home side at 1.25 is too short; Draw No Bet at a modest premium removes the slim draw risk cleanly.
DNB Home at 1.25 is the call. The model probability and the form data both point the same direction, and the h2h record adds a third, independent signal. Alt: Over 3.5 goals at 1.80, if Lillestrom's leaky defence invites another comfortable Glimt win.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 26.04.26 | Eliteserien | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 22.03.26 | NM Cupen | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 01.12.24 | Eliteserien | 5–2 | O2.5 |
| 01.05.24 | NM Cupen | 2–4 | O2.5 |
| 14.04.24 | Eliteserien | 0–5 | O2.5 |
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