Boca Juniors arrive into this Sudamericana quarter-final unbeaten in their last five across all competitions (2W 3D 0L), having conceded in only 3 of those 5 games. Sao Paulo are in decent nick - 3 wins in 5 - but their only away loss in the sample came at Chapecoense, and they have no head-to-head record with Boca to lean on. Goalkeeper Marchesin and striker Bareiro are both unavailable for the hosts, a notable double absence.
The key numbers: Boca have scored in all 5 recent games (scored_in: 5) and kept 2 clean sheets. Sao Paulo conceded in all 4 of their away-perspective games (conceded_in: 4). The DNB price for Boca sits at 1.25-1.30 across books, reflecting a solid home edge in a continental knockout.
Verdict: the model points to Boca not losing here. At 1.25-1.30, the DNB covers the draw and gives clean exposure to the home win. Take Boca DNB at 1.30 (10Bet).
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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