Boca Juniors enter this Sudamericana last-16 tie in inconsistent shape, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss across their last 5 games. They have kept just 2 clean sheets in that run and conceded in 3 of 5 outings. Four key players are sidelined, including goalkeeper Marchesin, which adds pressure to a backline already shipping goals. Recoleta arrive in confident mood, winning 3 of their last 5 and scoring in all 5 matches, netting 9 goals in the process. Crucially, they have conceded in 4 of their last 5, so this is a side that trades blows rather than shuts up shop. The key inputs: Boca conceded in 3 of 5, Recoleta scored in 5 of 5. Both teams to score has landed in 2 of Boca's last 5 and in 4 of Recoleta's last 5. The model points to a match with goals at both ends. No head-to-head data exists, so form is the only guide, and both sets of numbers align on BTTS. With no odds available, the value argument rests purely on the data. Back both teams to score.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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