Birmingham open their home account in round five of the Championship sitting on one win and three draws from their last five across all competitions. They have shipped ten goals in that spell, keeping just one clean sheet. Wolves arrive in better shape: three wins from four Championship outings, scoring freely but also leaking at the back, conceding in four of five recent matches. Six absentees on the away side, including Trippier and Johnstone, will test squad depth without altering the attacking intent.
The numbers point firmly toward goals. Birmingham have seen both teams score in four of their last five matches; Wolves match that figure exactly. The model puts the BTTS probability at 69 per cent. Over 2.5 goals has landed in three of Birmingham's last five and four of Wolves' last five. With both defences porous and both attacks functional, the scoreline is unlikely to stay quiet.
BTTS Yes at 1.80 (bet365) is the call. The price is fair given the underlying data and neither side has shown the defensive solidity to keep a clean sheet here. Confidence sits at 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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