Birmingham arrive at round four with two Championship draws and one win from three league outings, leaking nine goals across all five recent fixtures. Southampton, meanwhile, have scored in all five of their last games and put five past Millwall just days ago. The visitors carry genuine attacking momentum, while Birmingham's defensive record - nine conceded in five - offers little reassurance.
The numbers favour Southampton clearly. Their model probability sits at 50% to win, against just 27% for the hosts. Southampton's away DNB price of 2.00 reflects that edge without the draw risk. Both teams scored in 4 of Southampton's last 5 games and in all 2 head-to-head meetings on record, underlining the attacking nature of this fixture.
Southampton DNB at 2.00 is the call. If Birmingham fail to keep a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5, backing the visitors to at least not lose is a measured position. For risk appetite, BTTS YES at 1.65-1.67 is the alternative given the volume of goals both sides have produced.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 29.12.25 | Championship | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 06.12.25 | Championship | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 02.03.24 | Championship | 3–4 | O2.5 |
| 28.10.23 | Championship | 3–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service