Vodafone Park smells like a mismatch tonight. Besiktas just dismantled a derby rival 2-1 away at Fenerbahce and put six past Corum at home, arriving into Round 5 with three wins from five and 11 goals scored. Erzurumspor, meanwhile, have netted just twice in five outings and were hammered 4-0 by Galatasaray at home three weeks ago.
The numbers back the story. Besiktas scored in 3 of their last 5, conceded in 4, and are averaging well over two goals a game. Erzurumspor scored in only 2 of 5 and conceded in 3. The model puts Besiktas winning at 93 percent. The AH -1.5 is priced at 1.87, and the 6-2 hammering of Corum shows the margin is well within reach.
I want the bigger number here. A -1.5 handicap at 1.87 is value when you are backing a side with this firepower against a team that has scored twice all season. Take Besiktas -1.5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service