Benfica arrive in dominant shape, winning 4 of their last 5 across all competitions and scoring 13 goals in that span. Vitoria Guimaraes, by contrast, have won just 1 of their last 5, scoring only 3 goals and failing to find the net in 2 of those outings. The head-to-head picture is even starker: Benfica are unbeaten in 5 meetings, keeping 4 clean sheets and conceding just 2 goals in total. Three of those wins were by a 3-0 scoreline, and Vitoria have only scored in 1 of the last 5 h2h fixtures. The model puts Benfica's win probability at 81%. With Vitoria scoring in only 3 of their last 5 and the h2h showing near-total dominance, the AH -1.5 at 1.65 (bet365) is the play. Benfica's firepower against a blunt Vitoria attack makes a two-goal margin the base case.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.03.26 | Primeira Liga | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 01.11.25 | Primeira Liga | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 19.04.25 | Primeira Liga | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 07.12.24 | Primeira Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 11.02.24 | Primeira Liga | 2–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service