Benfica arrive at the Estádio da Luz having just demolished St. Gallen 5-0 in the Europa League first leg, a squad bursting with purpose and goals. Hearts, by contrast, shipped six goals across two legs against Sturm Graz in the Champions League qualifiers and head to Lisbon with four players on the injury list.
Benfica scored in all 5 of their last 5 games and hit over 2.5 goals in 4 of those 5. Hearts conceded in 4 of their last 5 and managed to score in only 3 of 5. The gap in class, firepower and fitness is enormous, and the -2.5 handicap at 1.85-1.95 gives us real value on a side that just put five past European opposition without reply.
Back Benfica AH -2.5 at 1.95. The alt play is Over 3.5 at 1.80 - four of Benfica's last five matches cleared that line with ease.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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