Benfica arrive at round 6 in perfect domestic form, five wins from five across all competitions with 15 goals scored and only 3 conceded. Gil Vicente have been remarkably tight at the back: 4 clean sheets in their last 5 outings and just 1 goal conceded, but they have scored in only 3 of those 5 matches and registered zero BTTS in the entire sample.
The h2h picture reinforces the angle. In 5 head-to-head meetings, Benfica have won all 5, scoring 15 and conceding 3, with BTTS occurring in only 3 of those clashes. The model outputs an 89% probability for BTTS No, driven by Gil Vicente's near-total scoring drought away from home and Benfica's defensive solidity when they dominate.
BTTS No is priced at 1.48-1.55 across bookmakers. At 89% model probability, that represents clear value. The verdict: BTTS No at 1.50 (bet365).
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 02.03.26 | Primeira Liga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 26.09.25 | Primeira Liga | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 28.03.25 | Primeira Liga | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 28.09.24 | Primeira Liga | 5–1 | O2.5 |
| 04.02.24 | Primeira Liga | 3–0 | O2.5 |
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