Benfica arrive in dominant form: 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 5. Estoril have collected zero wins in their last 5 competitive matches, scoring just 2 goals while conceding 6. The gap in quality is stark. The head-to-head record seals the argument: Benfica have won all 5 of the last meetings, averaging 2.8 goals scored per game. Over 2.5 landed in all 5 of those clashes. The model sits at 97% for a home win, which makes the 1.17 flat price unattractive. AH -1 at 1.20-1.23 is where the value sits: Benfica must win by 2 or more, a margin they have hit in 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads. With Estoril scoring in only 2 of their last 5 games, the model also puts BTTS NO at 83%, making the 1.70-1.76 on no for the alt.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 16.05.26 | Primeira Liga | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 03.01.26 | Primeira Liga | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 03.05.25 | Primeira Liga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 23.12.24 | Primeira Liga | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 10.03.24 | Primeira Liga | 3–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service