Belgium host Turkey in UEFA Nations League A, round 3. The Red Devils have won 3 of their last 5, including a sharp 2-0 away win over Italy, but four key absentees - Courtois, Onana, Doku and Trossard - thin the squad. Turkey arrive in poor shape: 1 win in 5, conceding in all five recent games, and now missing Calhanoglu and Yildiz.
The model prints 81% for a Belgium home win. Turkey have scored in only 2 of their last 5 matches, and Belgium's backline held a clean sheet in 1 of 5 despite the injury list. BTTS probability sits at just 23%, with the no-BTTS outcome at 77%. Belgium scored in 4 of their last 5 and carry the attacking weight here.
The play is BTTS No at 2.38. Turkey's attack is misfiring badly - scored in just 2 of 5 - and Belgium's absences affect output more than defensive solidity. The price of 2.38 against a 77% model probability is the value angle in this fixture.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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