Belarus host San Marino in Nations League C with a clear edge on paper. Belarus have 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, scoring 8 goals in that span, while San Marino have lost 4 of their last 5 with only 2 goals scored across the entire run. The visitors just shipped 7 to Finland and 3 to Albania at home, a defence that concedes in 4 of their last 5. The gap in class is stark. Belarus scored in 3 of 5 recent games and conceded in 4, pointing to a relatively open home performance. San Marino scored in just 2 of 5, and the 14 goals against tell the real story. The model reads this as a routine Belarus win by a margin. AH -1.5 at 1.35 (bet365) is the pick: Belarus cover the spread in a mismatch of this magnitude. Alt: Over 2.5 at 1.36 fits the same logic.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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