Belarus have taken just 1 win in 5 recent outings and were held 0-0 by Finland in the reverse fixture nine days ago. Finland arrive with 2 wins from 5, including a 2-1 victory over Albania this week, and the model puts their win probability at 76%. Two injured absentees (Joronen, Pyyhtia) are a minor concern but do not shift the balance. The head-to-head record from the only meeting in this data shows 0 goals, 0 BTTS, and a clean sheet for Belarus - yet the model still overwhelmingly favours the Finns. With Belarus scoring in only 3 of 5 games and conceding in 3 of 5, Finland's defensive solidity under pressure is the edge. Model probability: 76% for Finland. The market offers 2.00-2.11, which sits above the model's implied fair value of around 1.32. Finland away at 2.05 is the tip.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 29.09.26 | UEFA Nations League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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