Bayern arrive at Bundesliga Matchday 1 with five wins from five pre-season outings, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Stuttgart are 3-1-1 across their last five, but that one defeat came against Fulham and their cup win over Hansa Rostock was against lower-division opposition. Laimer and Musiala are sidelined for the hosts; Stuttgart miss only Sauer.
The head-to-head numbers are stark. In 4 meetings Bayern have won all 4, scoring 15 and conceding just 3. Every single fixture produced more than 2.5 goals. Bayern also kept 2 clean sheets in those 4 games, meaning Stuttgart failed to score in half of recent encounters. The AH -1.5 line sits at 1.65-1.67 across books, implying roughly 60% probability for a two-goal winning margin - a threshold Bayern have cleared in 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings.
At 1.65, AH -1.5 Bayern is the call. The injury absences are noted, but the structural gap between these sides in recent H2H is too wide to ignore. Back Bayern -1.5 at 1.65.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.05.26 | DFB Pokal | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 19.04.26 | Bundesliga | 4–2 | O2.5 |
| 06.12.25 | Bundesliga | 0–5 | O2.5 |
| 16.08.25 | Super Cup | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 28.02.25 | Bundesliga | 1–3 | O2.5 |
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