Bayer Leverkusen arrive in Bundesliga Round 6 on the back of four wins from five across all competitions, conceding in only 2 of those 5 outings. Freiburg match that win count but have been far more porous, conceding in 4 of their last 5 games and registering BTTS in 4 of 5. Both squads carry injury absences, though neither looks drastically weakened in attack.
The head-to-head record over the last five Bundesliga meetings is the sharpest signal here. Leverkusen have not lost once in those five encounters, but both teams scored in 4 of those 5 clashes, producing 23 goals in total. Freiburg have scored in all 5 of their recent fixtures. The model puts BTTS probability at 64 per cent, which sits above the implied probability of the 1.50 price (roughly 67 per cent), making this a tight but supported call.
Leverkusen are expected to control this game and the 1X2 price of 1.70 reflects that. However, Freiburg's attacking output makes a clean sheet for either side unlikely. BTTS YES at 1.50 is the play. As a riskier angle, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is backed by 4 of 5 h2h meetings going over.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.03.26 | Bundesliga | 3–3 | O2.5 |
| 26.10.25 | Bundesliga | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 04.05.25 | Bundesliga | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 21.12.24 | Bundesliga | 5–1 | O2.5 |
| 17.03.24 | Bundesliga | 2–3 | O2.5 |
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