Bayer Leverkusen open their Europa League campaign at home against Celje, a Slovenian side currently third-bottom in the 1. SNL after three losses in their last four league matches. Leverkusen have rotated freely in the Bundesliga but remain a different class at European level. Three absentees - Culbreath, Eichhorn and Tella - thin the squad slightly, yet the depth is not comparable.
Leverkusen have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches and produced over 2.5 goals in all 5. Celje have conceded in 4 of their last 5 outings and managed just 5 goals in that span against Slovenian opposition. The gap in quality is reflected in the handicap market: AH -2 for Leverkusen is available at 1.65-1.67.
The AH -2 line at 1.65 is the angle. A two-goal Leverkusen win is a reasonable base case given the class gap and their scoring form. Celje's defensive fragility makes covering a two-goal spread credible. Back Leverkusen AH -2 at 1.65.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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