BATE arrive at this second leg in poor domestic form: 1 win, 3 losses in their last 5, zero clean sheets across all five matches. Elbasani, meanwhile, carry genuine momentum - 3 wins in their last 5 - and already proved they can score here in the first leg (1-1 in Albania). The aggregate is level, pressure is on BATE at home, and neither defence has looked solid.
The numbers are clear. BATE conceded in all 5 of their last 5 matches; Elbasani scored in 4 of their last 5. BTTS landed in 3 of BATE's last 5 and 3 of Elbasani's last 5. The sole head-to-head meeting also ended BTTS. Over 1.5 goals is priced at 1.33-1.35, signalling the market agrees goals are coming.
Model says BTTS YES. Both defences are porous, both attacks functional. At 1.83-1.91, BTTS YES offers value. Alt: Over 1.5 goals at 1.35 for the more cautious angle.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.07.26 | UEFA Conference League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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