Arena Fonte Nova holds a quiet menace tonight. Bahia have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads against Vasco, dropping zero points at home in this fixture across the data, and they welcome a Vasco side carrying no injury worries but also no Serie A win in their last five outings. Bahia, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last four competitive matches and hold three clean sheets across the h2h sample. The numbers tighten the case: Bahia's DNB is priced at 1.42, the model puts home win probability at 60%, and Vasco have scored in just 4 of their last 5 games while conceding in 3. Three over-2.5 results in five h2h meetings adds a wrinkle, but Bahia's defensive solidity at home tips the balance. Back Bahia DNB at 1.42 - the price is short but the logic is clean.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.02.26 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 23.11.25 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 25.09.25 | Serie A | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 29.10.24 | Serie A | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 27.06.24 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service