Salvador's Tricolor host a Chapecoense side still finding their feet in Serie A, and the gulf in class at this stage of the campaign feels very real. Bahia have won 2 of their last 5, scored in all 5, and put 10 goals on the board in that run - a team with genuine firepower even if the defence leaks.
Chapecoense arrive with 3 losses in 5, scoring in only 3 of those 5 games and conceding in all 5. Their head-to-head record here tells a story too: Bahia have lost both prior meetings, but those came in Serie B - a very different era. The model puts Bahia's win probability at 72%, and the odds at 1.41 represent fair value for a home side this dominant in front of goal.
Back Bahia to win at 1.41. The visitors carry two injury absentees, Bahia carry four, but the quality gap is stark enough to absorb that. Bigger price, bigger swing - that's the game.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 01.10.22 | Serie B | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 15.06.22 | Serie B | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service