Borussia Monchengladbach arrive at this fixture with three consecutive Bundesliga defeats, shipping 12 goals across those three losses. Six players are sidelined, including Nicolas-Gerrit Kuhn, and the home backline has conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches. Mainz, by contrast, have lost just once in five outings and kept 3 clean sheets in that run, conceding only 4 goals overall. In the last two head-to-head meetings, Gladbach have not lost - a draw and a home win - but the gap in current form is stark. The model places Mainz at 86% to win and only 4% on the hosts. Mainz DNB at 1.65 (bet365) removes the draw risk on a side that looks the superior unit by a distance. Confidence is kept at 3 given the thin h2h sample.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 19.04.26 | Bundesliga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 05.12.25 | Bundesliga | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 07.03.25 | Bundesliga | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 25.10.24 | Bundesliga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 02.03.24 | Bundesliga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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